LAB #2611 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: BTCUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.0% to 39.2% (+8.2pp, n=51) — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: BTCUSD LONG — improves win rate from 31.0% to 39.2% (+8.2pp, n=51) **SAME-WINDOW EFFECT:** Applying a BTCUSD LONG-only filter would have had zero direct impact on the 10 live trades listed, as none are BTCUSD. However, the filter's stated win-rate improvement (+8.2pp on n=51) is derived from a different instrument and timeframe — it does not transfer to the FX/metals trades shown. If the filter were intended to suppress non-BTCUSD signals, it would have blocked all 10 trades, eliminating 6 wins and 4 losses — a net PnL change of roughly −2R (assuming avg win/loss ratio ~1:1), and win rate would drop to 0% on this window. The claimed improvement is not observable here. **OVER-TIME PROJECTION:** Over 3–6 months, a BTCUSD LONG filter would only affect BTCUSD signals — not the FX/metals portfolio that dominates live activity. If the filter is meant to be applied *globally* (i.e., only trade BTCUSD l Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com