RESERVE ADEQUACY UNDER GOLD CONCENTRATION: AN EFFECTIVE RESERVE BUFFER INDEX FOR COMMODITY- EXPORTING EMERGING ECONOMIES

The re-emergence of gold as a principal reserve asset has created a measurement challenge that is not ful y captured by conventional reserve adequacy frameworks. Adequacy indicators typically value gold at market prices and may treat it as broadly comparable to short-term claims on reserve-currency sovereigns, although these assets differ in terms of volatility, speed of monetisation, and their correlation with the shocks that international reserves are intended to absorb. This article develops the Effective Reserve Buffer Index (ERBI), an original composite indicator designed to measure the divergence between headline and usable reserve adequacy in gold-concentrated portfolios. Applying the index to eight economies over the period 2024–2026, the study distinguishes between two mechanisms that may not be fully separated in conventional assessments: a valuation channel, through which reserve growth may reflect asset revaluation rather than additional accumulation, and a covariance channel, through which the reserve buffer and the export base may respond to a common price factor and decline simultaneously under adverse conditions. A liquidity-adjusted reserve adequacy formula incorporating a stress haircut and a monetisation capacity coefficient is proposed and applied to Uzbekistan through scenario projections to 2027. The results indicate that, under the model assumptions and scenarios considered, headline import cover may overstate the usable reserve buffer by a factor approaching two.