Prior-aware conditional geometry of the 440 quasinormal-mode coordinates in GW250114 and GW250207: evidence and reproducibility package

Versioned evidence, code, compact official-derived inputs and audit materials supporting a prior-aware conditional coordinate comparison in released GW250114 and GW250207 pSEOBNR posteriors. Conditional on the released 220 complex-frequency posterior, adding the 440 damping-time coordinate produces a larger E-optimal weakest-remnant-direction margin than adding the 440 frequency coordinate, even though the frequency deviation is more strongly constrained marginally. For GW250114 the released-posterior margin is 0.0134843 against a hybrid 220-posterior-plus-440-prior null of 0.00441347, so the event conditioning amplifies rather than creates the positive ordering; GW250207 reproduces the sign under both calibration treatments. The package contains the GW250114 and GW250207 numerical audits, the surrogate-error audit and its failed convex-hull diagnostic, the matched marginal-KL reproducer, derivative-sensitivity checks, manifests and SHA-256 checksums. The work does not claim non-Kerr hair, a new black-hole uniqueness theorem, or that damping time is a universally superior measurement channel.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22941800
Primary Topic
Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
Type
preprint
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preprint

Prior-aware conditional geometry of the 440 quasinormal-mode coordinates in GW250114 and GW250207: evidence and reproducibility package

Joel Pearcey
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
preprint

Prior-aware conditional geometry of the 440 quasinormal-mode coordinates in GW250114 and GW250207: evidence and reproducibility package

Joel Pearcey
preprint en

Abstract

Versioned evidence, code, compact official-derived inputs and audit materials supporting a prior-aware conditional coordinate comparison in released GW250114 and GW250207 pSEOBNR posteriors. Conditional on the released 220 complex-frequency posterior, adding the 440 damping-time coordinate produces a larger E-optimal weakest-remnant-direction margin than adding the 440 frequency coordinate, even though the frequency deviation is more strongly constrained marginally. For GW250114 the released-posterior margin is 0.0134843 against a hybrid 220-posterior-plus-440-prior null of 0.00441347, so the event conditioning amplifies rather than creates the positive ordering; GW250207 reproduces the sign under both calibration treatments. The package contains the GW250114 and GW250207 numerical audits, the surrogate-error audit and its failed convex-hull diagnostic, the matched marginal-KL reproducer, derivative-sensitivity checks, manifests and SHA-256 checksums. The work does not claim non-Kerr hair, a new black-hole uniqueness theorem, or that damping time is a universally superior measurement channel.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
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Prior-aware conditional geometry of the 440 quasinormal-mode coordinates in GW250114 and GW250207: evidence and reproducibility package — Joel Pearcey · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS