Different Last Millennium El Niño Southern Oscillation Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Drive Disparate North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Characteristics

Abstract Understanding the relationship between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is critical for both seasonal predictions and future projections of TCs. Unfortunately, the satellite observational era (1970‐present) captures too few El Niño events to fully characterize the response of TC activity to this multivariate, multi‐scalar, and non‐linear climate phenomenon. Here we explore ENSO‐TC teleconnections using large data sets (>100 k) of synthetic North Atlantic tropical cyclones simulated for the past millennium using three different climate reconstructions ‐ two earth system models (Max Planck Institute, Community Earth System Model) and one paleoclimate data assimilation reconstruction (Last Millennium Reanalysis v2.1). El Niño events contain different “flavors,” ranging from canonical events characterized by warming in the Eastern Pacific (EP) to Central Pacific (CP) events with warming concentrated in the equatorial CP. Each last millennium reconstruction produces different warming patterns for CP and EP El Niño events. These differences result in a lack of a consistent response in TC genesis, track, or intensity during each type of event. In general, El Niño events suppress storms in the North Atlantic across models, but the patterns of suppression are largely model dependent. Our work highlights a need for improving simulations of realistic CP and EP El Niño sea surface temperature patterns to properly characterize North Atlantic TC risks in a changing climate.