Enhancing resource efficiency and carbon mitigation in China's steel industry: An integrated decomposition, decoupling, and policy evaluation framework

As the world's largest steel producer, China's steel industry contributes about 15% of national carbon emissions (CEs). This study develops an integrated framework combining decomposition analysis, decoupling assessment, and quantitative policy evaluation to examine CEs pathways and drivers in China's steel industry from 2006 to 2021. Results show that economic expansion persistently drove emissions, while energy intensity reduction was the strongest mitigating factor. Decoupling evolved from weak to strong, indicating the technical feasibility of absolute decarbonization under suitable policies. A novel decomposition attributes about 43% of energy intensity gains to policy-driven capacity-structure upgrading and 57% to internal efficiency improvements. The policy evaluation finds energy efficiency measures most effective and sustainable, whereas energy structure adjustments remains limited by metallurgical constraints. We recommend scaling energy-efficient technologies, strengthening market-based environmental regulation, and accelerating hydrogen-based ironmaking and CCUS. This framework supports climate-aware industrial policy in high-emission sectors globally.