The Fast and the Spurious: A Causal Evaluation of NYPD’s Pursuit Policy, 2022–2025

Abstract Objectives This study examines the consequences of the New York City Police Department’s late-2022 operational shift that sharply expanded vehicle pursuits. We evaluate whether the surge in pursuits affected motor vehicle collisions, robberies, and shootings, and whether any crime-prevention benefits offset the associated collision costs. Methods For collision outcomes, interrupted time series (ITS) segmented regression provides direct causal estimates. For crime outcomes, where within-city trends may reflect national forces, we triangulate across a city-level ITS, a generalized synthetic control comparing New York with large U.S. cities, a test of whether crime rose after the February 2025 re-restriction, and descriptive borough- and precinct-level comparisons of where any decline was concentrated. A cost-benefit analysis estimates the threshold of prevented shootings needed for pursuit escalation to break even. Results Monthly pursuits rose from roughly eight to a peak above 200. Pursuit-related collisions increased proportionally with pursuit volume across all four policy regimes and declined sharply following the February 2025 policy re-restriction. Crime outcomes provide no evidence of deterrence. The generalized synthetic control finds NYC’s post-2022 shooting trajectory statistically indistinguishable from the national counterfactual, and robbery, if anything, rose relative to comparable cities. The February 2025 reduction in pursuits was not followed by any increase in crime. Descriptive within-city comparisons align: the shooting DiD rests on non-parallel pre-trends, and the robbery DiD runs opposite to deterrence. Conclusions Pursuit escalation produced clear and attributable collision harms while providing no credible evidence of crime reduction. Cost-benefit estimates suggest the threshold of prevented shootings required to offset these harms was not achieved. Agencies should require affirmative evidence of crime-prevention benefits before expanding pursuit authority.