Seismic Risk Assessment of Elevator Entrapment in Urban Buildings

Abstract When an earthquake occurs, elevators are highly susceptible to damage, leading to people being trapped and posing significant challenges to emergency rescue. This paper proposes a method for assessing the number and distribution of elevator-trapped individuals in urban areas postearthquake. First, an elevator quantity estimation model is established by integrating elevator configuration rules and design principles for different building functions across regions including Europe, the United States, Japan, and China. Second, through an analysis of the correlation and degree of impact of various factors such as building damage and power outages, an elevator failure assessment model was developed using the Bayesian network method. Then, time-varying curves of elevator occupancy in different types of buildings are developed, with full consideration of the impact of regional differences in daily schedules. Finally, a comprehensive assessment model for the number and distribution of trapped individuals is established, and its effectiveness is verified through a case study in Dongchuan District, Kunming City. Comparative analysis with results from other literature methods confirms the model’s reliability. The assessment outcomes provide dual-scale references: macrodistribution levels and building-specific evaluations, enabling accurate prediction of trapped individuals’ locations at both regional and street levels. This offers valuable support for rescue teams in determining rescue sequences and allocating resources, thereby enhancing postearthquake rescue efficiency. From an international perspective, the method demonstrates wide applicability and transferability, serving as a scientific tool for earthquake-prone regions worldwide.