Detection of Red Crown Rot of Soybean in Illinois Fields Using High-Resolution Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning

Abstract Red crown rot (RCR), caused by Calonectria ilicicola , is an emerging soybean disease in the U.S. Midwest for which scalable approaches to characterize within-field disease distribution are lacking. This study evaluated high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery for mapping RCR-affected soybean canopies across 15 commercial fields in Illinois surveyed during the 2024 and 2025 growing seasons. A total of 2,921 georeferenced canopy plots were classified as asymptomatic or RCR-affected and paired with six multispectral bands and seven vegetation indices. Spectral differences between classes were evaluated using linear mixed-effects models, and seven machine-learning classifiers representing linear, tree-based, neural-network, kernel, and probabilistic approaches were compared using spatially independent leave-one-field-out cross-validation. RCR-affected canopies exhibited increased reflectance in the visible and red-edge regions, reduced near-infrared reflectance, and lower vegetation-index values relative to asymptomatic canopies. All classifiers showed strong discrimination, with ROC-AUC values ranging from 0.963 to 0.982. Regularized logistic regression achieved the highest overall performance, with an accuracy of 0.945, balanced accuracy of 0.945, F1-score of 0.948, and ROC-AUC of 0.982 at the optimized decision threshold. Permutation analysis identified EVI, NDVI, and red reflectance as the most influential predictors across representative model architectures. Satellite-derived probability and classification maps generally corresponded with symptomatic canopy patterns observed in high-resolution UAV imagery, although mixed pixels reduced precision near disease-patch boundaries. These results demonstrate the potential of high-resolution satellite imagery for within-field mapping of RCR-associated canopy symptoms across independent commercial soybean fields.