Assessing the Impact of Multiregional Socioeconomic Transition on Water Use in Africa

Abstract Reducing water scarcity in Africa has become a critical sustainable development goal with the intensification of global trade and rapid socioeconomic changes. Assessing the impact of multiregional socioeconomic transition on Africa’s water use is therefore a prerequisite for alleviating water scarcity. This study examined the impact of internal and external socioeconomic transition on water use changes in five major African countries (Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Cameroon) during 2000–2021. The results indicate that total water use of emerging African countries (Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Cameroon) has increased, with rising final demand level in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) constituting the dominant driver of this growth. In contrast, technological progress within the selected African countries has reduced water use intensity and thereby partially offset the upward pressure on water use. Changes in external production and consumption structures, particularly adjustments in the European Union’s production structure, have further contributed to reductions in African water use, with the associated water-saving effect being approximately twice as large as that of internal production structure changes. The findings highlight the critical role of inter-regional cooperation and targeted optimization of economic structures in steering Africa toward a more water-efficient development pathway.