A risky business: navigating autocratization through ideological legitimation claims

Abstract Autocratization typically results from measures aiming at seizing, strengthening, and consolidating political power. However, it is not without risks: it may produce adverse reactions from multiple actors and possibly lead to the fall of its perpetrators from power. What makes autocratizing incumbents more capable of surviving during such a perilous process? We argue that the adoption of ideological legitimation strategies makes incumbents more capable of surviving during autocratization in democratic and electoral authoritarian regimes. We test our argument through survival analysis of incumbents in power during processes of autocratization from 1900 to 2024. Though relatively understudied in the context of autocratization, our study highlights ideology as a key factor in the process of transformation of a political regime toward autocracy.