War-related and psychological predictors of experiential and physiological fear of war in Germany: findings from a nationally representative survey

Abstract Background Fear of war has emerged as a relevant psychosocial phenomenon in Europe, yet little is known about factors associated with its experiential and physiological dimensions in representative populations. This study examined sociodemographic, war-related, and psychological predictors of experiential and physiological fear of war in Germany. Method Data were drawn from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of German-speaking individuals aged 16 years and older ( N = 2,530). Fear of war was assessed using the Fear of War Scale (FOWARS). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted separately for experiential and physiological fear of war, entering sociodemographic, psychological, and war-related variables in three theory-driven blocks. Results Participants reported moderate levels of experiential fear of war ( M = 3.54, SD = 0.99), whereas physiological fear was lower on average ( M = 2.24, SD = 1.12). The final models explained 9% of the variance in experiential fear of war and 11% of the variance in physiological fear of war. War-related salience emerged as a key correlate of experiential fear, particularly when participants referred to a specific war, a global/world war, or nuclear war. In contrast, physiological fear showed clearer associations with indicators of psychological vulnerability, including childhood adversity, lower interpersonal trust, and emotion regulation variables. Overall, the findings supported differential predictor patterns across experiential and physiological fear. Women and older individuals reported higher fear levels. Sensitivity analyses using an ordinal salience variable supported the robustness of the findings. Conclusions Fear of war appears to reflect an interplay between war-related salience and individual vulnerability. Distinguishing experiential and physiological fear responses may improve understanding of psychosocial reactions to geopolitical crises and contribute to public mental health monitoring and risk communication.