Coupling Analysis of Multiple Meteorological Elements and Atmospheric Electric Field in the Lower and Middle Atmosphere (Troposphere and Stratosphere)

Severe convective weather can generate strong electrostatic fields and electromagnetic radiation, significantly inducing electrification processes in the lower and middle atmosphere (0–45 km) and perturbing space charge distributions. The perturbations to the lower-atmospheric electrical state can be classified into direct and indirect coupling regimes. Existing research predominantly focuses on direct coupling induced by solar wind and lightning strikes. This study constructs an indirect coupling model to explore the coupling mechanisms between multiple meteorological elements and the vertical atmospheric electric field as well as space charge density within the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Based on balloon sounding observation experiments conducted across three geographical locations (Nanjing, Nanchang, and Wenchang), comprising 36 independent sounding profiles covering an altitude of 0–45 km under four weather scenarios (fair weather, overcast, non-thunderstorm rainy, and thunderstorm), vertical electric field and meteorological profiles were acquired using electric field radiosondes. Mathematical modeling was performed by combining Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR, utilizing variable log-transformation and non-dimensional scaling to eliminate non-linearity and multicollinearity) with a Bayesian framework (employing MCMC sampling to estimate parameter posterior distributions and 95% credible intervals). Experimental results demonstrate that under normal fair-weather conditions, a stable, weak background electric field (0.005–0.4 kV/m) exists. Under thunderstorm conditions, although strong convective updrafts govern the electrification intensity, altitude and atmospheric pressure constitute spatial and physical density boundary constraints, while temperature and humidity gradients regulate charge separation via hydrometeor phase transitions. A robust statistical coupling relationship is confirmed across diverse climatic regions. The proposed coupling model and detection-analysis framework provide an analytical approach for investigating meteorological–electric field coupling mechanisms in the lower and middle atmosphere.