Thermal Energy Storage Versus Biomass Hybridization for Firm Solar Power: Annual Off-Design and Uncertainty-Based Design of a Concentrating Solar sCO2 Combined Cycle in Tropical Climates

High direct normal irradiation and a large residual stream from oil-palm processing make the Colombian Caribbean an attractive site for firm renewable power, yet the balance between thermal energy storage (TES) and biomass backup for supercritical CO2 (sCO2) plants in tropical climates remains unresolved. This work evaluates a 120 MWe solar tower plant based on a re-heated recompression sCO2 Brayton cycle bottomed by a dual-pressure organic Rankine cycle (DORC) and hybridized with palm biomass. A Python 3.12/CoolProp 8.0 design model supplies temperature-dependent performance maps to an 8760 h quasi-steady dispatch layer with dry-cooling ambient coupling and part-load derating. Solar multiple, storage capacity, biomass capacity fraction and turbine inlet temperature are sized simultaneously with NSGA-II against levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and capacity factor (CF), subject to a regional feedstock availability of 210 kt/yr, and the selected design is propagated through Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol analysis; biomass heat supplies 36–43% of the delivered electricity across the selected designs. The combined cycle attains 51.25% thermal efficiency at the 720 °C salt limit, while the cost-optimal designs deliver 47.9–49.6% at the turbine inlet temperatures selected, of which the bottoming cycle contributes 2.13 percentage points. The feedstock constraint is active along the Pareto front except at its fully firm corner: optimal designs saturate the biomass budget and reach firmness with solar multiples of 2.9–3.5 and 7–10 h of storage. Capacity factor rises from 0.888 to 0.998 for an LCOE penalty of 2.6% (108.5 to 111.3 USD/MWh), while the levelized cost spans P50 = 107 to P90 = 122 USD/MWh and the discount rate alone accounts for 78% of its variance. Near-baseload operation is therefore inexpensive for this class of plant, and financing terms rather than component costs govern its economic risk.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Energies
Published
2026-09-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/en19184467
Primary Topic
Thermodynamic and Exergetic Analyses of Power and Cooling Systems
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
article

Thermal Energy Storage Versus Biomass Hybridization for Firm Solar Power: Annual Off-Design and Uncertainty-Based Design of a Concentrating Solar sCO2 Combined Cycle in Tropical Climates

Guillermo Valencia Ochoa, José William Restrepo, Luis David Rodríguez Villalba
Energies
Thermodynamic and Exergetic Analyses of Power and Cooling Systems
article

Thermal Energy Storage Versus Biomass Hybridization for Firm Solar Power: Annual Off-Design and Uncertainty-Based Design of a Concentrating Solar sCO2 Combined Cycle in Tropical Climates

Guillermo Valencia Ochoa, José William Restrepo, Luis David Rodríguez Villalba
article en

Abstract

High direct normal irradiation and a large residual stream from oil-palm processing make the Colombian Caribbean an attractive site for firm renewable power, yet the balance between thermal energy storage (TES) and biomass backup for supercritical CO2 (sCO2) plants in tropical climates remains unresolved. This work evaluates a 120 MWe solar tower plant based on a re-heated recompression sCO2 Brayton cycle bottomed by a dual-pressure organic Rankine cycle (DORC) and hybridized with palm biomass. A Python 3.12/CoolProp 8.0 design model supplies temperature-dependent performance maps to an 8760 h quasi-steady dispatch layer with dry-cooling ambient coupling and part-load derating. Solar multiple, storage capacity, biomass capacity fraction and turbine inlet temperature are sized simultaneously with NSGA-II against levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and capacity factor (CF), subject to a regional feedstock availability of 210 kt/yr, and the selected design is propagated through Monte Carlo simulation and Sobol analysis; biomass heat supplies 36–43% of the delivered electricity across the selected designs. The combined cycle attains 51.25% thermal efficiency at the 720 °C salt limit, while the cost-optimal designs deliver 47.9–49.6% at the turbine inlet temperatures selected, of which the bottoming cycle contributes 2.13 percentage points. The feedstock constraint is active along the Pareto front except at its fully firm corner: optimal designs saturate the biomass budget and reach firmness with solar multiples of 2.9–3.5 and 7–10 h of storage. Capacity factor rises from 0.888 to 0.998 for an LCOE penalty of 2.6% (108.5 to 111.3 USD/MWh), while the levelized cost spans P50 = 107 to P90 = 122 USD/MWh and the discount rate alone accounts for 78% of its variance. Near-baseload operation is therefore inexpensive for this class of plant, and financing terms rather than component costs govern its economic risk.

EnergiesVol. 19(18)
University of Atlántico (CO), EIA University (CO)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 20%
Thermodynamic and Exergetic Analyses of Power and Cooling Systems
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.