Population Mobility, Neighborhood Social Vulnerability, and COVID-19 Outcomes in New York City: An Origin-Based Perspective

Decrease in population mobility was expected to mitigate the spread of the corona virus. Prior research mainly focused on mobility destination or network but barely took an origin perspective. Integrating multiple sources of data, this study examines the association between population mobility and pandemic outcomes among census tracts during the lockdown period (23 March 2020–2 August 2020) in New York City. With origin-based measures assessing weekly mobility to grocery and retail/recreation stores, it employs global regression models to investigate the roles of neighborhood social vulnerability and mobility patterns in affecting COVID-19 infections and deaths, and spatial methods to uncover local variations. Results show that neighborhood visits to retail/recreation venues and grocery stores fell by over 50% during the lockdown period, with greater declines in areas ranked low on the social vulnerability index (SVI). At the city level, higher average weekly grocery visits were associated with greater cumulative COVID-19 infection and mortality rates, whereas retail/recreation visits showed an inverse relationship. Locally, mobility to these two venues was mostly positively associated, but negative relationships emerged in some areas. In addition, the mobility-related associations are more pronounced in low-SVI neighborhoods. Therefore, it is necessary to consider more localized strategies when implementing mobility restrictions.