Developing an Indicator System for Assessing the Effectiveness of Public Expenditure on Education in Vietnam

This study aims to develop and validate an indicator system for assessing the effectiveness of public expenditure on education in Vietnam, conceptualizing effectiveness as a multi-layered policy transformation process rather than a linear relationship between spending levels and educational outcomes. Public expenditure effectiveness is conceptualized across five pillars: budgetary resources; allocation and operational mechanisms; direct manifestations of budget utilization; medium-term systemic changes; and long-term social impacts. Based on this framework, the study designs an indicator system and conducts a three-round Delphi process involving 62 experts in public finance, public administration, education economics, and policy evaluation. The indicator system demonstrates high structural consistency and strong inter-expert reliability, while content validity reflects the contested and context-dependent nature of policy measurement. The standardized system is refined to 27 indicators, designed for policy diagnosis rather than causal inference or performance ranking. The study provides a valuable measurement tool for analyzing and governing public expenditure on education in transitional institutional contexts.