Extreme challenges in the coldest continent: 10 years of Antarctic adventure sport tourism (2014–2024), participation trends and qualitative risk analysis

Abstract Adventure tourism in Antarctica has expanded significantly over the past couple of decades and has brought along new challenges for managing human and environmental safety in one of the world’s most remote regions. This study provides a retrospective qualitative analysis of participation in and associated risks with adventure sport tourism activities conducted between 2014 and 2024, using data obtained from the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). Activities examined include kayaking, polar plunges, scuba diving, mountaineering, skiing and endurance events. Participation in these adventure activities increased more than three-fold over the study period, with kayaking and polar plunges showing the most rapid growth. Conversely, deep-field camping, which is associated with some of the adventure tourism activities previously mentioned, declined sharply. We conducted a qualitative risk assessment informed by published injury epidemiology, severity of common injuries and environmental risk factors specific to Antarctica rather than direct Antarctic injury incidence data. Our qualitative risk assessment suggests that aquatic activities, particularly scuba diving and long-distance swimming, pose the highest risk to human well-being due to hypothermia, drowning and decompression illness, compounded by the absence of hyperbaric facilities on the continent. Land-based activities such as climbing and skiing carry substantial risk of traumatic injury and cold-related complications. These findings support the need for standardized safety protocols, pre-activity medical screening and improved emergency preparedness among operators. As participation in high-risk activities continues to rise, evidence-based policy measures will be critical to safeguarding human health and minimizing environmental impacts.