An atom obstruction to stochastic non-diversification

In models with infinite mean, weighted averages of independent risks can stochastically dominate the underlying marginal distribution. This paper studies the class D⁻ of probability measures on the real line for which this non-diversification phenomenon holds across all finite convex combinations. We show that any law in D⁻ satisfies μ({a}) · μ((-∞, a)) = 0 for every a ∈ ℝ, so that no probability mass can lie strictly below an atom. This gives a negative answer to the discrete-law question posed by Müller (2025), proving that the only purely discrete distributions in D⁻ are Dirac measures. The conclusion follows from a two-copy comparison along positive weights tending to zero, with no moment or support-bound assumptions. Lean 4 formalization and replication package: https://github.com/Theophilus1030/lean-nondiversification

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22866335
Primary Topic
Statistical Methods and Inference
Type
preprint
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preprint

An atom obstruction to stochastic non-diversification

Yuankai Guo, Xiyu Wang
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Statistical Methods and Inference
preprint

An atom obstruction to stochastic non-diversification

Yuankai Guo, Xiyu Wang
preprint en

Abstract

In models with infinite mean, weighted averages of independent risks can stochastically dominate the underlying marginal distribution. This paper studies the class D⁻ of probability measures on the real line for which this non-diversification phenomenon holds across all finite convex combinations. We show that any law in D⁻ satisfies μ({a}) · μ((-∞, a)) = 0 for every a ∈ ℝ, so that no probability mass can lie strictly below an atom. This gives a negative answer to the discrete-law question posed by Müller (2025), proving that the only purely discrete distributions in D⁻ are Dirac measures. The conclusion follows from a two-copy comparison along positive weights tending to zero, with no moment or support-bound assumptions. Lean 4 formalization and replication package: https://github.com/Theophilus1030/lean-nondiversification

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Statistical Methods and Inference
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