From referendum to reconciliation: How shared values and identities align with a commitment to long‐term collective action

Abstract One formal mechanism for effecting change to progress the rights of structurally disadvantaged groups is via citizen referenda. However, referenda are often characterized by divisive public debate. We suggest that sustaining action for long‐term change (beyond a referendum itself) may be associated with identifying with an opinion‐based group and perceiving shared values between advantaged and disadvantaged groups. Among a nationally representative sample of Australians ( N = 2467), we examined collective action intentions for the Reconciliation Movement 1 month before, 1 week before, and 1 week after the 2023 Voice to Parliament referendum. Study 1 used a random intercept cross‐lagged panel model to show that value consensus, opinion‐based identification as a supporter of Reconciliation, and reconciliation action were positively associated at a temporally stable level, but within‐person effects did not vary much from these levels. Study 2 used growth mixture models and revealed five diverging trajectories of reconciliation action, which were explained by differences in value consensus, opinion‐based identification, and support/opposition to the Voice referendum. Our findings offer some of the first evidence showing that value consensus and opinion‐based identification are associated with sustaining action for social change, especially during times of polarization and division.