Mapping Coastal Resource–Environment Carrying Capacity in an Intensively Developed Coastal Area: Evidence from Rui’an, China

Abstract Coastal zones are dynamic land–sea interfaces where development pressures often approach ecological and environmental limits. Here, we operationalize a pressure–condition–response (P–C–R) framework to deliver a customized, high-resolution ( 30 × 30 m ) assessment of coastal resource–environment carrying capacity (RECC) for Rui’an (Zhejiang, China) using 2017 multisource geospatial, environmental, socioeconomic, and planning data sets. GIS-based spatial overlay and index modeling produce a composite coastal carrying capacity index (CAI) that ranges from 0.5 to 2.1, revealing strong spatial heterogeneity and a persistent “higher pressure north of the Feiyun River–lower pressure south of the river” pattern. Overload hotspots occupy ∼ 10 % of the coastal zone and cluster along the northern urban shoreline belt, whereas near-saturation dominates ( ∼ 78 % ), indicating widespread proximity to threshold conditions where incremental disturbances could shift local areas into overload. The cooccurrence of high pressure and constrained condition aligns with carrying risk concentrated where intensive human use coincides with limited buffering capacity; intensive land reclamation and shoreline artificialization are prominent contributors associated with this pattern. These outputs provide zoning-ready evidence to support differentiated governance pathways, including constraining additional development intensity and reducing loads in overloaded areas, institutionalizing capacity assessment index (CAI)-based early warning and adaptive controls across near-saturation belts, and maintaining ecological bottom lines in undercapacity areas.