Nested Bubble/Gear v0.1.0: Predictive Closure, Compositional Trust, and Metastable Identity in Multiscale Systems

Nested Bubble/Gear (NBG-01) v0.1.0 is a prospective research architecture for testing when a complicated lower-level dynamical process can be promoted to a trusted effective object at a higher descriptive scale. Promotion is not granted by visual clustering, persistence, or low-dimensional appearance alone. NBG-01 instead requires predeclared evidence for predictive sufficiency, reduced representation/interface cost, preservation of behavior under composition, and metastable trust separation in which internal conditional relaxation is fast relative to catastrophic failure. The framework integrates predictive-state/projection-closure ideas, Markov lumpability, compositional open-system formalisms, tensor-network coarse-graining analogies, quasi-stationary distributions, viability/invariance concepts, and assume-guarantee contracts. These established tools remain distinct; NBG-01's contribution is the synthesis into a versioned Bubble Promotion Receipt that records predictive leakage, composition defect, interface cost, quasi-stationary identity, failure hazard, conditional mixing, assumptions, guarantees, and modeling error. The release also freezes NBG-01 Experiment 1, an exact 64-state stochastic coupled-module protocol with a predefined observer ladder, parameter grid, predictive targets, QSD analysis, composition test, promotion gates, anti-rescue rules, and valid null/failure outcomes. No Experiment 1 scientific result is reported or promoted in v0.1.0. NBG-01 is derived from UFP-NB1 v0.3.0, Dynamic Causal Foam v0.3.0, and UFP × DCF Axis C0 v0.1.0 while preserving their evidential boundaries. NBG-01 does not claim that nature is literally composed of nested bubbles/gears and does not establish fundamental physics, quantum gravity, consciousness, or agency.