LAB #2524 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.7% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.7% (+1.6pp, n=1410) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum-5-confirmations filter would have rejected the two earliest live trades in the window — the USDCHF SHORT (still open/rejected) and the GBPUSD SHORT at 10:10 (which closed as a WIN). That would have removed one winning trade from the sample, slightly lowering the live win rate in this window (from 5/9 to 4/8, or ~50% to 50% — no net change in win rate, but PnL would drop by the profit of that GBPUSD win). The filter would not have touched the other seven trades, so the immediate effect is marginal and mixed — it removes a winner but also avoids a potentially risky open position. Net PnL delta is slightly negative in this specific window, but the sample is too small to be meaningful. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a 5-confirmation minimum should reduce noise entries triggered Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22873893
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2524 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.7% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2524 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.7% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.7% (+1.6pp, n=1410) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum-5-confirmations filter would have rejected the two earliest live trades in the window — the USDCHF SHORT (still open/rejected) and the GBPUSD SHORT at 10:10 (which closed as a WIN). That would have removed one winning trade from the sample, slightly lowering the live win rate in this window (from 5/9 to 4/8, or ~50% to 50% — no net change in win rate, but PnL would drop by the profit of that GBPUSD win). The filter would not have touched the other seven trades, so the immediate effect is marginal and mixed — it removes a winner but also avoids a potentially risky open position. Net PnL delta is slightly negative in this specific window, but the sample is too small to be meaningful. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a 5-confirmation minimum should reduce noise entries triggered Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2524 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.7% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS