High-resolution assessment of spatiotemporal changes in China’s multiple cropping potential under future climate scenarios

Climate change is reshaping global multiple cropping potential through warming at higher latitudes and hydrological constraints in the tropics. Under China’s red line policy to stabilize total arable land, increasing cropping intensity is crucial for raising grain output without cropland expansion. Here, statistically downscaled climate data were integrated into the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model to simulate cropping intensity potential at 5 km resolution across China for 2025–2050 under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). More than 60% of China’s cropland exhibits potential for increased cropping intensity, with hotspots in the lower Yangtze River Basin, Sichuan Basin, and Huang–Huai–Hai Plain. Over half of these areas could support an additional season of nonrice crops, and approximately 25% an additional rice-growing season. Multiple cropping potential exhibits a clear northwest-to-southeast gradient, with ‘limited triple cropping’ as the most widespread upgradable type. Under higher-emission scenarios, area conductive to double- and triple- cropping expands whereas those suitable for single cropping contracts, with peak improvements occurring earliest under SSP5-8.5 and latest under SSP1-2.6. These projections represent changes in climatic suitability rather than overall agricultural benefits. These findings reveal substantial but spatially heterogeneous potential for cropping intensification and provide a scientific basis for regionally targeted agricultural adaptation.