Modeling future land use/land cover dynamics in Ayvacık District (Çanakkale, Türkiye) using a CA-Markov Model

Objective: This study aims to model the future land-use/land-cover dynamics in the Ayvacık District of Çanakkale Province and evaluate possible spatial transformation trends for 2040 within an ecological planning framework.Materials and Methods: A Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) -supported Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model was used to simulate future land-use dynamics and to generate a land-use/land-cover map for 2040.Results: Approximately 56% of the study area experienced LULC change during the study period. Settlement areas, transportation infrastructure, industrial and commercial areas, and mining areas increased, whereas maquis, pastures, and other semi-natural landscape elements declined. The 2040 simulation indicated that these trends are likely to continue, with further expansion of settlement areas, secondary road networks, and water bodies; agricultural lands, olive groves, pastures, and semi-natural landscapes are likely to remain under transformation pressure.Conclusion: The findings suggest that land-use changes in Ayvacık are driven by both environmental conditions and socio-economic factors, including tourism development, transportation investments, and rural economic transformations. The study provides valuable information for sustainable land management, ecological planning, and future decision-making processes.