Decadal evaluation of the weather modification implementations to prevent forest and land fires and its contribution to reducing carbon emissions in Indonesia

Forest and land fires in Indonesia are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from peatland ecosystems in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Since 2016, Weather Modification Technology (WMT) has shifted from a curative fire-suppression approach to a preventive strategy focused on peatland rewetting. This study evaluates the effectiveness, environmental benefits, and economic efficiency of preventive WMT during 2016–2025 by analyzing changes in hotspot occurrence, burned area, carbon emissions using the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) method, alongside statistical uncertainty analysis, and an economic valuation using the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) method. The results show that hotspot occurrence decreased by 80.0–80.4% in Sumatra and 69.1–69.5% in Kalimantan, while burned area declined by 70.8–71.4% and 67.7–68.3%, respectively, compared with the 2006–2015 period. During the 2023 El Nino event, carbon emissions were reduced by 85.0–94.2% in Sumatra and 71.3–80.5% in Kalimantan relative to 2015. Economic valuation produced Benefit-to-Cost Ratios (BCRs) of 60 (95% CI: 57–65) in 2019 and 173 (95% CI: 136–209) in 2023, indicating substantial economic benefits. These findings demonstrate that preventive WMT is an effective and cost-efficient component of integrated forest and land fire management and can support Indonesia's climate mitigation efforts, including the achievement of its Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and FOLU Net Sink 2030 targets.