The Rent-Capture Gap: Two Centuries of Commodity Cycles and Institutional Readiness in Chilean Economic Development

Working paper (Zenodo DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22882207) arguing that institutional readiness — fiscal, industrial, and legal-regulatory capacity to capture and reinvest resource rents — better predicts resource-dependent development outcomes than resource abundance alone. Developed through four sequential commodity cycles in Chilean economic history (silver/wheat, nitrate, copper, lithium), with an econometric check of structural breaks in GDP per capita (1960-2025) and explicit connection to the author's related working papers on institutional readiness in AI governance and macroprudential policy (The Adaptation Gap, The Control Gap).