Future scenarios for women's political participation: a scenario-based analysis of implementing the UN Pact for the Future in the Middle East

Abstract The UN’s “Pact for the Future” (PFF) positions gender equality and women’s political participation as critical for sustainable development. However, its effective implementation in the Middle East—a region marked by complex socio-political and cultural structures—faces significant uncertainty. This study addresses this implementation gap by employing futures studies methodology to construct and analyze three normative scenarios for realizing the PFF’s goals for women in the region. Through a process of expert workshops, document analysis, we develop distinct pathways: (1) a top-down National Implementation model; (2) a decentralized Localization model; and (3) a hybrid National-Global Co-creation model. Our analysis concludes that the Co-creation scenario presents the most sustainable and legitimate strategy. By institutionalizing multi-stakeholder dialogue and strategically engaging indigenous cultural and religious institutions, this approach facilitates the development of context-sensitive frameworks that advance women’s agency. In contrast, top-down implementation risks resistance and superficial compliance, while localization may lead to fragmentation.The study contributes to theoretical debates on the localization of global norms and postcolonial feminism, arguing that a shift from universalist prescription to contextual co-creation is essential. It provides policymakers with a strategic toolkit for transforming the PFF’s commitments into tangible, resilient progress for women’s political participation in the Middle East.