The Impact of Economic Policies on Agricultural Sector Performance Indicators in Iraq for The Period 2004–2022

The study aimed to measure the impact of macroeconomic policies on the performance indicators of the agricultural sector in Iraq for the period 2004–2022. The study used quarterly data amounting to 76 observations for each of (public spending, exchange rate, trade openness, agricultural bank credit) as independent variables, and agricultural output and agricultural exports as dependent variables. By relying on the autoregressive distributed lag model to achieve accurate results that reflect the impact of economic indicators on the Iraqi agricultural sector in the short and long term, and to understand the balances between the time series of the variables. The results showed a significant positive impact of public spending and agricultural bank credit on agricultural output, while the study found a negative impact of both the exchange rate and trade openness on agricultural output. There was a negative impact of public spending on agricultural exports and a positive impact of agricultural bank credit on agricultural exports. The study proved that neither the exchange rate nor trade openness had an impact on agricultural exports, which can be justified firstly by the weakness of the Iraqi agricultural sector, and secondly by the emergence of what is known as the Dutch disease.