Disaster Predictability and Seasonality in Household Preparedness: Evidence from the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake and the Nankai Trough Advisory

Abstract Previous research on disaster preparedness has largely examined whether individuals prepare for natural disasters, but less is known about how preparedness differs across socioeconomic groups and disaster contexts. Using a nationwide survey (N = 21,501), this study identifies four preparedness patterns—home stockpiles, emergency supply bags, both, or neither—and examines how demographic and socioeconomic factors shape them. Individuals with higher earthquake risk awareness are more likely to prepare, whereas renters are less likely to maintain home stockpiles, and high-income households are more likely to adopt both strategies. We further combine the survey with consumer point-of-sale data to track changes in purchasing behavior. Responses to the realized earthquake and the precautionary advisory differed in both the speed and geographic spread of emergency-related purchasing. These findings suggest that household preparedness is shaped not only by socioeconomic conditions and risk perception but also by the type and predictability of disasters.