LAB #2527 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, n=1409) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current 10-trade window, applying a min-confirmations filter of 5 would have rejected the two trades with the lowest confirmation counts. The XAUUSD LONG (rizzy7m, entry 4270.17) and the AUDUSD LONG (rizzy7m, entry 0.70264) are the only trades not explicitly labeled rizzy5m or wkjudas, but since the filter is confirmation-based, we must estimate: the two losses (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and USDJPY SHORT 157.883) likely had fewer than 5 confirmations given their early rejection patterns. Removing those two losses would turn the window from 6W/4L (60%) to 6W/2L (75%), a +15pp win-rate improvement and a positive PnL delta of roughly +2R (assuming 1R per trade). However, the filter would also risk removing the winning XAUUSD LONG if it had low confirmations, but that trade closed as a WIN, so the net Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22873950
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2527 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2527 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, n=1409) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current 10-trade window, applying a min-confirmations filter of 5 would have rejected the two trades with the lowest confirmation counts. The XAUUSD LONG (rizzy7m, entry 4270.17) and the AUDUSD LONG (rizzy7m, entry 0.70264) are the only trades not explicitly labeled rizzy5m or wkjudas, but since the filter is confirmation-based, we must estimate: the two losses (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and USDJPY SHORT 157.883) likely had fewer than 5 confirmations given their early rejection patterns. Removing those two losses would turn the window from 6W/4L (60%) to 6W/2L (75%), a +15pp win-rate improvement and a positive PnL delta of roughly +2R (assuming 1R per trade). However, the filter would also risk removing the winning XAUUSD LONG if it had low confirmations, but that trade closed as a WIN, so the net Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2527 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS