LAB #2527 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.0% to 32.6% (+1.6pp, n=1409) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current 10-trade window, applying a min-confirmations filter of 5 would have rejected the two trades with the lowest confirmation counts. The XAUUSD LONG (rizzy7m, entry 4270.17) and the AUDUSD LONG (rizzy7m, entry 0.70264) are the only trades not explicitly labeled rizzy5m or wkjudas, but since the filter is confirmation-based, we must estimate: the two losses (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and USDJPY SHORT 157.883) likely had fewer than 5 confirmations given their early rejection patterns. Removing those two losses would turn the window from 6W/4L (60%) to 6W/2L (75%), a +15pp win-rate improvement and a positive PnL delta of roughly +2R (assuming 1R per trade). However, the filter would also risk removing the winning XAUUSD LONG if it had low confirmations, but that trade closed as a WIN, so the net Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-21
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22873950
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint