Temporal Anchors and Conditional Floor Estimation in Bitcoin Halving Cycles

We formalize a technical market-structure reading of Bitcoin halving cycles using reference anchors at 80 and 135 weeks after each halving. Deviations observed in modern cycles define exploratory windows for cycle highs and floors. The resulting framework places the 2026 floor window in September–October and the next cycle-high window in September–October 2029, conditional on the estimated 2028 halving date. An illustrative 2026 floor-price module compares four scenario specifications and shows substantial disagreement in tail probabilities. Based on only three high observations and two completed floor observations, the framework provides testable temporal hypotheses rather than calibrated forecasts or investment signals.