Virtual water-land-carbon flows and compensation framework in China’s agricultural trade

Agricultural trade moves food alongside embedded water, land and carbon, creating environmental ties between producing and consuming areas. Yet most China-focused research only examines individual virtual resource flows and cannot fully expose agricultural trade’s ecological effects, with limited studies on interprovincial compensation mechanisms for synergistic virtual water-land-carbon flows (VWLCF). To address this gap, this study quantifies VWLCF characteristics and drivers and develops an equity-based compensation framework. Key findings: (1) VWLCF primarily flows from Northeast and inland Northwest China to southeast coasts; by 2030, virtual water, land and embodied carbon will rise by 12.23%, 21.67% and 51.21%. (2) Resource intensity (-37.67%) and per capita final demand (29.89%) dominate VWLCF changes. (3) Northeast and Northwest China receive over 70% of total ecological compensation, while Beijing-Tianjin and southeast coastal provinces take 82.34% of compensation obligations. This multi-factor VWLCF-based horizontal provincial compensation framework provides fresh perspectives for sustainable agricultural development.