Broad-scale evaluations of biodiversity change need reference comparisons

Assessments of broad-scale biodiversity change commonly aggregate communities that differ in their initial impacts and their total degree of change (differing "impact trajectories"). Biodiversity responses may depend on the impact trajectory of a given community; thus, not controlling for these differences could produce a misleading mixture of trends even if all communities degraded or recovered. To evaluate this dependency, we related biodiversity trends for 4062 river invertebrate time series (1971 to 2024) from 23 European countries to impact trajectories for each community, quantified through comparison to least-impacted references. Trends were typically stronger and more consistent in initially more impacted communities that also exhibited more extreme total change. However, responses were weaker when initial impacts were lower and highly inconsistent with lesser total change. Our results show that biodiversity trends should be compared among communities with similar impacts, determined relative to appropriate references. Improving trend comparability is essential to accurately determine how biodiversity generally responds to anthropogenic impacts and conservation actions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Science Advances
Published
2026-10-28
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aei1959
Primary Topic
Freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Broad-scale evaluations of biodiversity change need reference comparisons

James S. Sinclair, Miguel Cañedo‐Argüelles, Martial Ferréol, Peter Haase et al.
2 links
Science Advances
Freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology
article

Broad-scale evaluations of biodiversity change need reference comparisons

James S. Sinclair, Miguel Cañedo‐Argüelles, Martial Ferréol, Peter Haase, Marie Anne Eurie Forio, Michal Straka, Libuše Barešová, Andrés Peredo Arce, Jukka Aroviita, Nathan Jay Baker, Rudy Vannevel, Hugh B. Feeley, Ioannis Karaouzas, Daniela Cortés‐Guzmán, Martin Wilkes, Aitor Larrañaga, Diana Osadčaja, Catherine Bradley, Peter L.M. Goethals, Marek Polášek, Alexia María González-Ferreras, Mathieu Floury, Kaisa‐Leena Huttunen, David Cunillera‐Montcusí, Petr Pařil, S. Jannicke Moe, Ariane Moulinec
article en

Abstract

Assessments of broad-scale biodiversity change commonly aggregate communities that differ in their initial impacts and their total degree of change (differing "impact trajectories"). Biodiversity responses may depend on the impact trajectory of a given community; thus, not controlling for these differences could produce a misleading mixture of trends even if all communities degraded or recovered. To evaluate this dependency, we related biodiversity trends for 4062 river invertebrate time series (1971 to 2024) from 23 European countries to impact trajectories for each community, quantified through comparison to least-impacted references. Trends were typically stronger and more consistent in initially more impacted communities that also exhibited more extreme total change. However, responses were weaker when initial impacts were lower and highly inconsistent with lesser total change. Our results show that biodiversity trends should be compared among communities with similar impacts, determined relative to appropriate references. Improving trend comparability is essential to accurately determine how biodiversity generally responds to anthropogenic impacts and conservation actions.

Science AdvancesVol. 12(44)
University of Essex (GB), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES), Ifremer (FR), University of the Basque Country (ES), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CZ), Masaryk University (CZ), Finnish Environment Institute (FI), Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt/M (DE), Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NO), Ghent University (BE), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), Ruhrlandklinik (DE), Communauté urbaine de Lyon (FR), Agroécologie (FR), Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (GR), Nature Research Centre (LT), Ruhrverband (Germany) (DE), Institut Agro Dijon (FR), Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (ES), Flanders Environment Agency (BE), Instituto de Física de Cantabria (ES), T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute (CZ), Environmental Protection Agency (IE), University of Duisburg-Essen (DE), University of Oulu (FI)
Biodiversa+, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
Life on land
Openalex Percentile: Top 32%
Freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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