Trends in years lived with disability (YLD) rates of human brucellosis in Xinjiang, China, 2016–2025: a joinpoint regression analysis by sex, age, and region

Abstract Background Brucellosis, a major zoonotic disease highly endemic in Xinjiang, China, causes chronic, disabling infections that drive significant health impairment and disease burden. This study analyzed the long-term trend of the years lived with disability (YLD) rate attributable to human brucellosis in Xinjiang from 2016 to 2025, aiming to provide evidence for prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on 2016–2025 Xinjiang brucellosis surveillance data, incidence and YLD rates were calculated. Joinpoint regression identified trend inflection points, providing segment-specific annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Analyses were stratified by sex, age group, and region. Results In total, 52,745 human brucellosis cases were reported in Xinjiang, with an average annual incidence of 21.21 per 100,000. Both incidence and YLD rates showed a “decrease-increase-decrease” fluctuating pattern. Incidence was significantly higher in males (29.49 per 100,000) than in females (12.80 per 100,000), with farmers comprising the predominant occupational group (69.3%). Disease burden was highly concentrated in the 35–65 age group. Temporal trends varied by age group: the 0– and 15–year groups displayed a V-shaped fluctuation, decline then rise, while the remaining groups mirrored the overall trend. Spatially, the “north-high, south-low” gradient persisted with a narrowing gap. Tacheng showed a sustained decline (AAPC = − 9.33%), while Kashgar showed a continuous rise (AAPC = 23.61%). Conclusions This study reveals that the disease burden of brucellosis in Xinjiang exhibited a dynamic pattern of “decrease-increase-decrease” in 2016—2025. This fluctuating trend temporally compatible with periods of intensified control, COVID-19-related service disruption, and post-pandemic policy reinforcement, although this ecological analysis cannot establish causation. The disease burden is highly concentrated among young and middle-aged male workers engaged in agriculture and animal husbandry. Spatial analysis further identified heterogeneous regional patterns, ranging from effective control to sustained escalation. Therefore, establishing a resilient, long-term prevention and control mechanism grounded in the One Health concept is crucial. Implementing tailored strategies for different regions and key populations is the key to addressing the evolving challenges of brucellosis.