Reframing doctoral research instability through a supervisory risk lens

Abstract This conceptual article develops a supervisory risk framework to explain how doctoral research projects become unstable through interacting design vulnerabilities rather than isolated student shortcomings. Drawing on scholarship in doctoral supervision, academic socialisation, and higher education, it proposes a risk framework comprising research question scope, methodological alignment, timeline design, communication structures, and expectation alignment. These domains are conceptualised as interacting elements within supervisory design rather than discrete problems emerging later in candidature. The framework is intended to apply across disciplinary traditions characterised by differing epistemological assumptions and methodological approaches. By reframing project instability as a systemic and developmental issue, this article shifts attention from reactive remediation toward preventive supervisory design embedded within institutional performance environments. In doing so, it positions supervision as a meso-level mechanism through which broader institutional conditions shape doctoral project trajectories. This framework offers a conceptual lens for analysing doctoral instability and contributes to scholarship on doctoral education and institutional design.