When adaptation becomes maladaptation: drought-groundwater feedbacks and resilience in agricultural socio-ecological systems

Abstract This study investigates how increasing drought pressure, groundwater decline, and rapid land use/land cover (LULC) change reshape the resilience and feedback dynamics of an agricultural socio-ecological system. An integrated framework combining hydroclimatic, vegetation, water, soil moisture, groundwater, and LULC indicators was used to assess long-term changes and critical system transitions. Despite intensifying drought and persistent groundwater decline, vegetation greenness increased, indicating that agricultural production has been sustained beyond natural hydroclimatic limits through human intervention, particularly irrigation. Critical thresholds were identified around 2004 for drought conditions, 2006 for groundwater levels, and 2008 for surface water and vegetation dynamics, with substantial LULC changes during 2006–2012 further indicating an intensification of system transformation. Together, these changes suggest that groundwater-supported agricultural adaptation has increasingly generated maladaptive feedbacks, shifting the system from its historical state toward a fragile alternative regime. The system has not yet collapsed but appears to be operating close to its resilience limits. These findings highlight how adaptation strategies that sustain agricultural production in the short term can undermine long-term socio-ecological resilience when they depend on continued groundwater depletion. Redirecting water and agricultural management toward reducing groundwater dependence is therefore critical to avoiding further degradation and potentially irreversible system change.