LAB #2504 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3% (+1.3pp, n=164) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5-10°) would have excluded trades whose phase separation falls outside that band. Of the 10 listed trades, the two XAUUSD entries (4270.17 and 4048.74) and the USDJPY short (157.883) likely fall outside the 5-10° band based on typical phase drift at those timestamps, removing 1 WIN and 2 LOSSES. That would shift the window from 5W/4L (55.6%) to 4W/2L (66.7%) — a +11.1pp win-rate improvement on the remaining sample, but with a smaller n (6 vs 10), so the PnL delta is ambiguous: you lose one winning XAUUSD trade but also drop two losers, netting roughly +0.3R to +0.5R depending on position sizing. The filter does not appear to harm the current window, but the sample is too small to claim causal benefit. OVER-TIME PROJEC Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22873498
Primary Topic
Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
Type
preprint
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LAB #2504 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
preprint

LAB #2504 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3% (+1.3pp, n=164) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5-10°) would have excluded trades whose phase separation falls outside that band. Of the 10 listed trades, the two XAUUSD entries (4270.17 and 4048.74) and the USDJPY short (157.883) likely fall outside the 5-10° band based on typical phase drift at those timestamps, removing 1 WIN and 2 LOSSES. That would shift the window from 5W/4L (55.6%) to 4W/2L (66.7%) — a +11.1pp win-rate improvement on the remaining sample, but with a smaller n (6 vs 10), so the PnL delta is ambiguous: you lose one winning XAUUSD trade but also drop two losers, netting roughly +0.3R to +0.5R depending on position sizing. The filter does not appear to harm the current window, but the sample is too small to claim causal benefit. OVER-TIME PROJEC Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
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LAB #2504 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS