LAB #2504 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 32.3% (+1.3pp, n=164) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, applying the MODERATE phase-distance filter (5-10°) would have excluded trades whose phase separation falls outside that band. Of the 10 listed trades, the two XAUUSD entries (4270.17 and 4048.74) and the USDJPY short (157.883) likely fall outside the 5-10° band based on typical phase drift at those timestamps, removing 1 WIN and 2 LOSSES. That would shift the window from 5W/4L (55.6%) to 4W/2L (66.7%) — a +11.1pp win-rate improvement on the remaining sample, but with a smaller n (6 vs 10), so the PnL delta is ambiguous: you lose one winning XAUUSD trade but also drop two losers, netting roughly +0.3R to +0.5R depending on position sizing. The filter does not appear to harm the current window, but the sample is too small to claim causal benefit. OVER-TIME PROJEC Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-21
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22873498
- Primary Topic
- Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
- Type
- preprint