Allocation Over Price: Why Helium Markets Do Not Clear — Working Paper No. 1

In helium markets under scarcity, price does not clear; the allocator assigns. The scarce asset is ordering information: who receives, who waits, and who holds the trend. This paper states the physical basis of that condition. Helium-4 supply is concentrated at a small number of extraction complexes; the largest export complex has no overland route and one maritime exit, and its freight cycle is measured in weeks. Under scarcity, the operative rationing mechanisms are quotas, waiting lists, and contract allocation clauses. The paper describes the allocator function that operates those mechanisms, and the sealed superconducting magnet as the load-bearing end use whose failure modes generate demand. Scope: public sources only. Quantities as bands and orders of magnitude. Six dated, falsifiable propositions, stated 2026-09-21. Licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.