Evolutionary Characteristics and Trends of the Cross-Border Integrated Logistics Network in Inland Provinces Driven by China-Europe Railway Express and Land-Sea Intermodal Transport

Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), significant changes have taken place in the cross-border trade and logistics corridor systems of China’s inland provinces. Taking 18 inland provinces along the Belt and Road as the research objects, this study constructs a cross-border integrated logistics network based on the connections between inland ports and seaports established by inland provinces, together with the operating routes of the China–Europe Railway Express (CRE). The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and a distributional equilibrium model are employed to identify the evolutionary stages of the network. Furthermore, node-level comprehensive attractiveness and a dynamic rewiring mechanism are incorporated into an improved Barabási–Albert (BA) model to simulate the future evolution of the network. The results show that the network exhibits a distinct evolutionary pattern characterized by “initial concentration followed by diffusion.” The HHI reached a peak of 0.100 in 2020 and subsequently declined, indicating a transition from polarized concentration toward a relatively balanced network structure. Meanwhile, the role of core hubs has gradually shifted from resource siphoning to corridor-based diffusion and regional connectivity enhancement. Cross-border corridor and port choices have also become increasingly diversified, creating opportunities for differentiated competition among small- and medium-sized ports and non-core inland provinces. The timing of the major turning points in network evolution broadly coincides with the implementation of national corridor development policies, suggesting that corridor development has played an important role in promoting network restructuring and development.