Forecasting Urbanization Dynamics On İstanbul’s European Side Using Deep Learning And Extrapolation Techniques

Abstract Rapid urbanization in metropolitan regions poses significant environmental, social, and infrastructural challenges, necessitating advanced analytical approaches to monitor and predict urban growth. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urbanization on the European side of Istanbul from 2013 to 2024 using Landsat 8 imagery and a deep learning (DL)–based Land Cover Classification model integrated within ArcGIS Pro. The U-Net–based pre-trained model generated 15-class Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) maps, which were validated against the Urban Atlas dataset, resulting in high classification accuracies for forest and water classes (PA: 0.84–0.94; UA: 0.87–0.87) and an overall binary urban/non-urban accuracy of 87 %, confirming the robustness of the employed DL approach. Spatio-temporal analyses of LULC data were conducted using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and nonlinear regression functions to examine urban growth trends and project future development for 2025, 2026, and 2027. The results indicate a strong linear increase in urbanized areas across most districts, with total developed area on the European side projected to reach approximately 807 km² by 2027, representing a nearly 50% increase compared to 2013. These findings highlight the significant pressure of urban expansion on natural and agricultural lands and emphasize the need for informed planning strategies. By integrating remote sensing, deep learning, and predictive modeling, this study provides actionable insights for sustainable urban development, offering a replicable framework for monitoring rapid urbanization and supporting policy decisions to mitigate environmental and socio-spatial impacts in rapidly growing metropolitan regions.