Asymmetric effects of water resources on renewable energy in Morocco: evidence from the NARDL model

Abstract Understanding the relationship between water resources and renewable energy is increasingly important in countries facing growing pressure on water availability. This study examines the relationship between water abstraction and renewable electricity share in Morocco over the period 1990–2021. Gross domestic product (GDP), agricultural activity, and industrial activity are included as control variables. To account for potential asymmetries in the water–energy nexus, the analysis employs a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and an asymmetric Granger causality approach. The bounds test results indicate the presence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. However, the estimated long-run coefficients associated with positive and negative changes in water abstraction are statistically insignificant (− 0.87 and 0.06, respectively), providing limited evidence of a direct long-run influence of water abstraction on renewable electricity share. In contrast, the short-run estimates reveal significant asymmetric dynamics. A negative change in water abstraction is associated with a substantial reduction in renewable electricity share (− 5.28), whereas a positive change exerts a smaller positive effect (1.04). Agricultural activity displays a positive and statistically significant long-run relationship with renewable electricity share (5.28), while industrial activity does not exhibit a significant long-run effect. GDP shows a positive and statistically significant long-run effect (0.549, p = 0.012). The asymmetric Granger causality analysis further identifies a one-way predictive relationship running from negative changes in water abstraction to renewable electricity share. The findings suggest that the interaction between water abstraction and renewable electricity share is reflected primarily through asymmetric short-run adjustment mechanisms rather than through significant long-run effects. The stronger response associated with reductions in water abstraction indicates that changes in water resource conditions may influence renewable electricity dynamics over shorter horizons. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to balance water resource protection with the expansion of renewable electricity. They highlight the importance of integrating water resource considerations into renewable electricity planning, strengthening coordination between water and energy policies, and promoting a more balanced approach to sustainable resource management. In this respect, the study generates policy-relevant evidence that can support efforts to preserve water resources while advancing Morocco’s renewable electricity transition in a sustainable and resilient manner.