Shopping centre investment regimes, resilience and returns Part II: structural and cyclical responses to disruptions

Purpose The article is Part II of a two-part series that investigates the limitations of conventional analysis of shopping centre investment performance and suggests how a time dependent period/regime framework can provide more accurate and reliable measures. This part provides empirical analysis of shopping centre investment performance that is conditional on market periods and regimes that emerge within those longer temporal frames. Design/methodology/approach The analysis begins with an overview of retail performance across the study frame. Holothetic analysis is used to explore how advances in treatment of time can provide more accurate measures of shopping centre performance. The analysis includes statistical testing of the statistical significance such analysis can make in producing more accurate indicators of shopping centre performance. Findings The analysis demonstrates that retail performance varies within defined time periods, as well as shorter term regimes. There are three key takeaways from this research. First, time matters; performance drivers and outcomes vary by Period and Regime. Second, shopping centre performance has been resilient over time, although currently on a moderate, but positive path. Third, asset allocation decisions to shopping centres should be revisited, with special attention paid to performance indicators, market fundamentals and investor behaviour. Research limitations/implications The empirical analysis of shopping centre performance is based on the NPI all-retail property subindex spanning the study frame from 2001 to 2025. Practical implications The research demonstrates that time matters; that agents should pay attention to market drivers of value associated with change in performance over time. Social implications The study helps provide more accurate information regarding retail/shopping centre performance benchmarks to improve decision-making. Originality/value This paper provides insights into the performance of shopping centre and the resiliency the sector has demonstrated over the long term but varying by period and regime.