Nature conservation and local development: Regional heterogeneity and spatial dependence in Poland

This study investigates the relationship between nature protection and local socio-economic development in Poland. Using municipal-level data from the Polish Statistical Office for 2004–2024, we examine how different forms of protected areas are associated with entrepreneurship, municipal revenues, settlement attractiveness, and construction activity. Two complementary empirical approaches are applied. First, propensity score matching compares municipalities containing national parks with similar municipalities without parks. Second, spatial econometric models examine associations between nature reserves, landscape parks, protected landscape areas, and Natura 2000 sites and local socio-economic outcomes, while accounting for spatial dependence between municipalities. The findings reveal substantial heterogeneity across protection regimes and development dimensions. National parks are associated with a higher number of newly established enterprises in mountain and coastal municipalities, where these associations are consistent with a stronger role of tourism-related entrepreneurial activity, while the relationship with medium and large firms is generally less favourable. Nature reserves are associated with relatively limited development constraints and higher residential construction, whereas landscape parks and protected landscape areas are associated with weaker industrial and logistics activity. The spatial analysis also indicates significant spatial dependence for selected socio-economic outcomes. Overall, nature protection is associated with both development opportunities and constraints, with the strength and direction of these associations depending on the type of protection and regional tourism potential. The results are relevant to the design of compensation mechanisms for municipalities containing protected areas and to the broader debate on aligning biodiversity conservation with sustainable regional development.