Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks assessment in implementing aluminium circular supply chain

The transition from traditional linear models to circular supply chains has emerged as a strategic imperative for energy-intensive industries such as aluminium, driven by the need to mitigate environmental impacts and ensure compliance with international regulations such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. However, the implementation of circular models is accompanied by complex uncertainties and risks across environmental, social, and governance (ESG) dimensions, which have often been overlooked in conventional operational research. This study aims to identify and prioritize ESG risks within the context of the aluminium circular supply chain. To manage the inherent uncertainty in expert judgments, a novel hybrid decision-making framework based on Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets is proposed. Specifically, risks are identified through a literature review and finalized using a PF-Delphi method; subsequently, causal relationships and the weighting of these risks are assessed through an integrated approach combining Pythagorean Fuzzy DEMATEL and the Analytic Network Process. The findings indicate that the environmental risks of lack of access to cleaner technology (weight = 0.1335) and high demand for affordable renewable electricity (weight = 0.1289) are of the highest priority. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that within the aluminium industry, environmental risks take precedence, followed by social and governance risks, respectively. This study provides a comprehensive roadmap for policymakers to enhance the sustainability of the aluminium industry. By integrating ESG criteria with circular supply chain strategies and offering a precise quantitative tool for risk assessment under uncertainty, this research addresses a significant gap in the literature.