MODEL ADOPTION #2422: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% t — E8 Intelligence Research

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — phase-distance filter (≤2°) is not compatible with E8 geometry timing as a standalone live rule. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+4.4pp) is real but likely overfit to recent volatility clustering; filtering trades by phase distance alone does not align with E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic, which requires entry timing at specific harmonic nodes — not a static angular cutoff. Removing 20-30% of trades may cut high-RR winners, leaving net expectancy flat or negative. RISK: Threshold 2° is arbitrary; microstructure shifts (FX noise, spread widening) degrade predictability. Filter reduces trade frequency, potentially missing E8-aligned entries that occur at wider phase distances but still at valid rhythm nodes. Overfit to 434-sample backtest; live decay likely after 2 months. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 200-signal shadow-forward test on live signals — log phase distance at entry, do NOT filter. Then compare win rate AND ave Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22841542
Primary Topic
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
Type
preprint
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MODEL ADOPTION #2422: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% t — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #2422: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% t — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — phase-distance filter (≤2°) is not compatible with E8 geometry timing as a standalone live rule. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+4.4pp) is real but likely overfit to recent volatility clustering; filtering trades by phase distance alone does not align with E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic, which requires entry timing at specific harmonic nodes — not a static angular cutoff. Removing 20-30% of trades may cut high-RR winners, leaving net expectancy flat or negative. RISK: Threshold 2° is arbitrary; microstructure shifts (FX noise, spread widening) degrade predictability. Filter reduces trade frequency, potentially missing E8-aligned entries that occur at wider phase distances but still at valid rhythm nodes. Overfit to 434-sample backtest; live decay likely after 2 months. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 200-signal shadow-forward test on live signals — log phase distance at entry, do NOT filter. Then compare win rate AND ave Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
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MODEL ADOPTION #2422: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.0% t — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS