Data-driven modelling of passenger-car stock electrification: validation and cross-country scenarios

Electrification policy targets new registrations, but the transition of the national passenger-car stock depends jointly on BEV adoption and vehicle retirement. This study models both, using the Czech Republic as an ageing-market case. A power-law registration function is calibrated on Czech data for 2016–2024 and benchmarked against five reference countries; a fixed-lifetime stock-turnover model, with an age-structured extension, then gives post-2035 trajectories. The adoption parameter α is a reduced-form capacity measure reflecting affordability, policy continuity and charging access. Adjusted MAPE is 6.1–17.2 % with R 2 above 0.92; the Czech in-sample fit gives MAPE 5.8 %, R 2 0.974, α cal 0.034 and n cal 2.81. Vehicle lifetime alone sets the nominal replacement horizon r d = r 0 + L: 2047 for L = 12 years, 2055 for L = 20, while α scn = 0.10–0.40 governs the stock trajectory, not the terminal year. Results are scenario comparisons, not forecasts.