Four-Sphere Multiphysical Coupling and OMP Wave Dynamics in Major Earthquake Forecasting (MADRE Project — Paper 5)
Paper 5 of the MADRE Project / EUREKA 1719. Expands the deterministic formulation of Paper 4 (v_OMP = 316.4 km/day, Δt = 2.74 h) through a coupled four-sphere geophysical framework: (1) Lithosphere (Real GNSS): 49 continuous geodetic stations from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) with coseismic-jump purging (5-year clean inter-seismic window); (2) Ocean (OISST v2 Daily): 4,628 days (2014–2026) with NOAA 1981–2010 climatological anomalies for thermal-shock detection (ΔT ≥ 1.0 °C); (3) Atmosphere / Tides (M2/S2): gravitational diurnal modulation centred at 15:00 ± 2 h local time; (4) Forensic Satellite VLF Audit (ESA Swarm): 279,980 magnetic measurements revealing a systematic artificial ceiling at 3.3σ in official catalogues (concealing real anomalies up to 7.8σ and 8,297 nT in Vanuatu). Decisive results (binding directive: exclusive OMP calculation). Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) over 76,540 unique M≥5 source events and 11,489 OMP arrivals to the 8 circum-Pacific corridors yields a Rate Ratio RR = 4.79 (p < 0.001; 0/1000 circular placebos) at 14 days and RR = 8.05 at 7 days for M≥7.0 targets, versus a null result from the capped VLF catalogue (RR = 1.20, p = 0.31). Magnitude placebo: the OMP signal is 3.0× stronger for M≥7.0 (RR = 4.79) than for M5.5–6.5 (RR = 1.62). The result is reproduced independently from the public USGS FDSN catalogue (RR = 4.92 at 14 d; identical 101 vs 101 M≥7 corridor targets) and confirmed byte-exact by re-execution of the original generator on the authority database (RR = 4.793). Ablation ladder (frozen design, not yet executed). The v1.1 four-sphere ladder is pre-registered in fixed order with the VLF channel removed by Amendment v1.1; its incremental metrics (ΔAUC ≥ +0.02, Δhit-rate M7+ ≥ +5 pp, survival of 4 placebos) will be reported only after the prospective post-freeze execution (2026-09-30 → 2027-09-03). This pre-registration asserts no result values. All analyses are frozen via a SHA-256 hash-chain protocol (seed 42). The deposit includes the raw authority catalogue extract (78,202 M≥5 rows, SHA-256 sealed), the exact generators, and a full external-provenance note (USGS, NOAA NCEI OISST v2.1, NGL/UNR IGS20, ESA Swarm, Kp OMNI2). Version 2 (2026-09-19). Edición corregida y aumentada: (i) errata tipográfica de negritas Markdown eliminada de ambos manuscritos (38 asteriscos literales en el PDF v1); (ii) decimales GNSS y cota Vanuatu sincronizados con los maestros sellados; (iii) ventana del árbitro prospectivo hash-chain corregida a 2026-09-03 → 2027-09-03; (iv) redacción de la censura VLF armonizada con el peritaje sellado; (v) licencia CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 confirmada (idéntica a Papers 1-4); (vi) se incorpora el dry-run de la escalera de ablación (validación de pipeline in-sample, rotulado honesto); (vii) se excluyen 6 artefactos de compilación .aux/.log/.out (reproducibles) por el límite de 100 archivos por registro.
Authors
- Marcelo Hollander (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4786-7903)
- Antigravity (Gemini 3.8 Flash)
- OpenCode
- Xeon
- Ryzen (GLM 5.3)
- Kiro2
Institutions
- Eureka College (US)
- Cluster University Srinagar (IN)
- Innovation Cluster (Canada) (CA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-19
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22847742
- Primary Topic
- Earthquake Detection and Analysis
- Type
- preprint