Four-Sphere Multiphysical Coupling and OMP Wave Dynamics in Major Earthquake Forecasting (MADRE Project — Paper 5)

Paper 5 of the MADRE Project / EUREKA 1719. Expands the deterministic formulation of Paper 4 (v_OMP = 316.4 km/day, Δt = 2.74 h) through a coupled four-sphere geophysical framework: (1) Lithosphere (Real GNSS): 49 continuous geodetic stations from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) with coseismic-jump purging (5-year clean inter-seismic window); (2) Ocean (OISST v2 Daily): 4,628 days (2014–2026) with NOAA 1981–2010 climatological anomalies for thermal-shock detection (ΔT ≥ 1.0 °C); (3) Atmosphere / Tides (M2/S2): gravitational diurnal modulation centred at 15:00 ± 2 h local time; (4) Forensic Satellite VLF Audit (ESA Swarm): 279,980 magnetic measurements revealing a systematic artificial ceiling at 3.3σ in official catalogues (concealing real anomalies up to 7.8σ and 8,297 nT in Vanuatu). Decisive results (binding directive: exclusive OMP calculation). Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) over 76,540 unique M≥5 source events and 11,489 OMP arrivals to the 8 circum-Pacific corridors yields a Rate Ratio RR = 4.79 (p < 0.001; 0/1000 circular placebos) at 14 days and RR = 8.05 at 7 days for M≥7.0 targets, versus a null result from the capped VLF catalogue (RR = 1.20, p = 0.31). Magnitude placebo: the OMP signal is 3.0× stronger for M≥7.0 (RR = 4.79) than for M5.5–6.5 (RR = 1.62). The result is reproduced independently from the public USGS FDSN catalogue (RR = 4.92 at 14 d; identical 101 vs 101 M≥7 corridor targets) and confirmed byte-exact by re-execution of the original generator on the authority database (RR = 4.793). Ablation ladder (frozen design, not yet executed). The v1.1 four-sphere ladder is pre-registered in fixed order with the VLF channel removed by Amendment v1.1; its incremental metrics (ΔAUC ≥ +0.02, Δhit-rate M7+ ≥ +5 pp, survival of 4 placebos) will be reported only after the prospective post-freeze execution (2026-09-30 → 2027-09-03). This pre-registration asserts no result values. All analyses are frozen via a SHA-256 hash-chain protocol (seed 42). The deposit includes the raw authority catalogue extract (78,202 M≥5 rows, SHA-256 sealed), the exact generators, and a full external-provenance note (USGS, NOAA NCEI OISST v2.1, NGL/UNR IGS20, ESA Swarm, Kp OMNI2). Version 2 (2026-09-19). Edición corregida y aumentada: (i) errata tipográfica de negritas Markdown eliminada de ambos manuscritos (38 asteriscos literales en el PDF v1); (ii) decimales GNSS y cota Vanuatu sincronizados con los maestros sellados; (iii) ventana del árbitro prospectivo hash-chain corregida a 2026-09-03 → 2027-09-03; (iv) redacción de la censura VLF armonizada con el peritaje sellado; (v) licencia CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 confirmada (idéntica a Papers 1-4); (vi) se incorpora el dry-run de la escalera de ablación (validación de pipeline in-sample, rotulado honesto); (vii) se excluyen 6 artefactos de compilación .aux/.log/.out (reproducibles) por el límite de 100 archivos por registro.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22847742
Primary Topic
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
Type
preprint
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preprint

Four-Sphere Multiphysical Coupling and OMP Wave Dynamics in Major Earthquake Forecasting (MADRE Project — Paper 5)

Marcelo Hollander, Antigravity (Gemini 3.8 Flash), OpenCode, Xeon et al.
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
preprint

Four-Sphere Multiphysical Coupling and OMP Wave Dynamics in Major Earthquake Forecasting (MADRE Project — Paper 5)

Marcelo Hollander, Antigravity (Gemini 3.8 Flash), OpenCode, Xeon, Ryzen (GLM 5.3), Kiro2
preprint en

Abstract

Paper 5 of the MADRE Project / EUREKA 1719. Expands the deterministic formulation of Paper 4 (v_OMP = 316.4 km/day, Δt = 2.74 h) through a coupled four-sphere geophysical framework: (1) Lithosphere (Real GNSS): 49 continuous geodetic stations from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) with coseismic-jump purging (5-year clean inter-seismic window); (2) Ocean (OISST v2 Daily): 4,628 days (2014–2026) with NOAA 1981–2010 climatological anomalies for thermal-shock detection (ΔT ≥ 1.0 °C); (3) Atmosphere / Tides (M2/S2): gravitational diurnal modulation centred at 15:00 ± 2 h local time; (4) Forensic Satellite VLF Audit (ESA Swarm): 279,980 magnetic measurements revealing a systematic artificial ceiling at 3.3σ in official catalogues (concealing real anomalies up to 7.8σ and 8,297 nT in Vanuatu). Decisive results (binding directive: exclusive OMP calculation). Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) over 76,540 unique M≥5 source events and 11,489 OMP arrivals to the 8 circum-Pacific corridors yields a Rate Ratio RR = 4.79 (p < 0.001; 0/1000 circular placebos) at 14 days and RR = 8.05 at 7 days for M≥7.0 targets, versus a null result from the capped VLF catalogue (RR = 1.20, p = 0.31). Magnitude placebo: the OMP signal is 3.0× stronger for M≥7.0 (RR = 4.79) than for M5.5–6.5 (RR = 1.62). The result is reproduced independently from the public USGS FDSN catalogue (RR = 4.92 at 14 d; identical 101 vs 101 M≥7 corridor targets) and confirmed byte-exact by re-execution of the original generator on the authority database (RR = 4.793). Ablation ladder (frozen design, not yet executed). The v1.1 four-sphere ladder is pre-registered in fixed order with the VLF channel removed by Amendment v1.1; its incremental metrics (ΔAUC ≥ +0.02, Δhit-rate M7+ ≥ +5 pp, survival of 4 placebos) will be reported only after the prospective post-freeze execution (2026-09-30 → 2027-09-03). This pre-registration asserts no result values. All analyses are frozen via a SHA-256 hash-chain protocol (seed 42). The deposit includes the raw authority catalogue extract (78,202 M≥5 rows, SHA-256 sealed), the exact generators, and a full external-provenance note (USGS, NOAA NCEI OISST v2.1, NGL/UNR IGS20, ESA Swarm, Kp OMNI2). Version 2 (2026-09-19). Edición corregida y aumentada: (i) errata tipográfica de negritas Markdown eliminada de ambos manuscritos (38 asteriscos literales en el PDF v1); (ii) decimales GNSS y cota Vanuatu sincronizados con los maestros sellados; (iii) ventana del árbitro prospectivo hash-chain corregida a 2026-09-03 → 2027-09-03; (iv) redacción de la censura VLF armonizada con el peritaje sellado; (v) licencia CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 confirmada (idéntica a Papers 1-4); (vi) se incorpora el dry-run de la escalera de ablación (validación de pipeline in-sample, rotulado honesto); (vii) se excluyen 6 artefactos de compilación .aux/.log/.out (reproducibles) por el límite de 100 archivos por registro.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Eureka College (US), Cluster University Srinagar (IN), Innovation Cluster (Canada) (CA)
Life below water
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
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