Assessing the nexus between military expenditures and environmental sustainability in MENA countries using Fourier-based heterogeneous panel analysis

Abstract Military expenditures today are not only a determinant of security and geopolitical balances but also a strategic factor influencing environmental sustainability. However, the existing evidence on this relationship remains both fragmented and inconclusive. The literature predominantly features analyses focusing on limited environmental indicators, such as CO 2 emissions or ecological footprint, which has resulted in weak theoretical frameworks and inconsistent findings. To address this critical research gap, this study investigates the effect of military expenditures on environmental sustainability in 12 selected Middle East and North Africa countries (i.e., Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Morocco, Kuwait, and Jordan) over the period 1990–2024, employing the fractional frequency flexible Fourier form (FFFFF) panel cointegration test and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator, with FMOLS and DOLS estimators for robustness. Unlike most other studies, this research measures environmental sustainability using the load capacity factor (LCF), which simultaneously considers biocapacity and ecological footprint indicators. By combining these two dimensions, the LCF provides a more comprehensive measure of sustainability than conventional single-dimension indicators such as CO 2 emissions or the ecological footprint alone. The empirical findings indicate no statistically significant average association between military expenditures and environmental sustainability in the MENA region at the panel level; instead, the relationship is shaped by country-specific dynamics. Accordingly, military expenditures are positively associated with environmental sustainability in Israel, Bahrain, and Kuwait, whereas the results for Lebanon and Tunisia indicate that military expenditures appear to undermine environmental sustainability, a pattern consistent with the treadmill of destruction theory in these countries, which holds that militarization entails detrimental environmental consequences. In the case of Egypt, however, the negative estimate is sensitive to estimator choice and is therefore interpreted with caution. For the remaining countries, no statistically significant relationship is observed between military expenditures and environmental sustainability. Overall, this study contributes to reconciling the contradictory findings in the literature and offers policymakers country-level insights for balancing security and sustainability.