Down and staying down (mostly): Mental health trajectories of emerging Australian adults through the COVID-19 pandemic, 2017–2024

Abstract Objective The purpose of this study was to examine the mental health trajectories of Australia’s emerging adults in the years prior, during and post the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Participants ( n = 4,983) were from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) study who provided at least one observation between 2017 and 2024 and aged between 18 and 25. Mental health was operationalised with the four subscales of the SF-36 Mental Health Component: Mental Health Index (MHI), Vitality, Role Emotion, and Social Functioning. Multi-level regression models estimated the trajectory of each subscale. Analysis examined whether trajectories were moderated by sex, education or employment status. Results There was limited decline in mental health prior to the pandemic but declines in mental health between 2019 and 2020 were substantive. For example, the MHI reported declines of b = −3.24 (SE = 0.42) from 2019 to 2020. From 2021, mental health outcomes stabilised and there was limited evidence for a recovery to pre-pandemic levels. There was some evidence that trajectories were moderated by sex and employment status, but this was inconsistent for different mental health outcomes. Conclusions The impact of the events surrounding COVID-19 on the mental health of emerging Australian adults has been clear and substantive. There has been no substantive improvement since 2020 to pre-pandemic levels. It is likely that concerted public policy will be needed to focus on those social and economic factors that will likely support mental health to return to pre-pandemic levels.