Are the blue and the green natural allies? Mapping the public foundations of just transition worldwide

A Just Transition, with its dual goals of environmental sustainability and social equity, has gained global prominence and has been adopted as a formal policy agenda by governments and intergovernmental organizations. While broad and meaningful public support for both goals is crucial to effective implementation, research on public attitudes has largely focused on developed Western countries or specific vulnerable populations. To address this gap, we examine whether and how support for environmental protection aligns or conflicts with backing for progressive redistribution across a diverse range of developed and developing countries. We posit that access to economic safety nets enables broader alignment at the population level (i.e., breadth of support), while post-materialist values and lived endorsement of the welfare state foster stronger individual-level alignment (i.e., depth of support). Our analysis, covering 95 countries from 2005 to 2022, finds support for these expectations. First, the population share of Green-Blue progressives supporting both goals is notably smaller in developing countries with high economic insecurity. Second, one’s environmental and redistributive attitudes in much of the Global South are unaligned or negatively correlated, in contrast to the positive individual-level alignment observed in developed countries, particularly among post-materialists and in generous welfare states. Regional variation is also significant: Europe ranks high in breadth and shows significant depth; North America shows strong depth but no significant breadth; East Asia demonstrates wide breadth but comparatively shallow depth. Sub-Saharan Africa lags significantly on both dimensions. This global variation calls for context-sensitive Just Transition policies that account for distinct socioeconomic realities.