Industrial thermal energy supply options: A multifactor evaluation framework

Industrial heat production represents approximately 50% of U.S. manufacturing sector energy needs and related emissions, yet emission reduction strategies for this sector remain underexplored relative to power and transportation. This study applies the open-source LiAISON (Life cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models) framework, integrating for the first time the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) into a prospective LCA framework, to evaluate 189 unique configurations of low-temperature (100–500°C) industrial heat supply technologies across nine environmental impact categories from 2020 to 2100. Technologies evaluated include electrification (resistive heaters and heat pumps), hydrogen-based heating, biofuels, solar thermal, and carbon capture and storage (CCS)-integrated systems, assessed under both a business-as-usual (SSP2 Baseline) and a climate-target (SSP2 RCP2.6) scenario. Results demonstrate that under the climate-target scenario, all alternative heat sources reach global warming potential (GWP) parity with conventional natural gas by 2050, with heat pumps and solar thermal performing best across most impact categories. However, significant trade-offs emerge across other environmental dimensions: renewable electrification increases material supply chain burdens; hydrogen pathways involve elevated toxicity and upstream emissions; biobased heating raises marine eutrophication and water consumption concerns; and CCS-integrated systems require additional energy inputs and resources. A systems-level analysis projects cumulative GWP savings of 56.5 billion tons of CO 2 -eq. over 2030–2100 under the climate-target scenario but accompanied by a 4.5-fold increase in freshwater ecotoxicity relative to the baseline. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) analysis reveals a short-term increase in health burdens through 2040, followed by net improvements as GWP reductions dominate. These findings underscore that relying solely on carbon metrics risks shifting environmental burdens to other domains, and that a multi-indicator, prospective systems framework is essential for identifying balanced industrial decarbonization pathways.